La Trobe University

Recent ACIAR research on trade reform and Indian agriculture found that trade policy reform must be complemented by 'behind-the-border' reforms if government objectives of improved productivity, higher rural employment and incomes and enhanced food security are to be met. Project ADP/2007/062 titled 'Facilitating Efficient Agricultural Markets in India: An Assessment of Competition and Regulatory Reform Requirements' therefore focuses on facilitating the development of agricultural policy settings which will enable Indian farmers to efficiently adjust to a less regulated marketing environment including an appropriate competition policy regime.
The project is being undertaken collaboratively between the NSW Department of Primary Industries, India's National Council of Applied Economic Research, La Trobe and Melbourne Universities and the Australia and New Zealand School of Government.
Project objectives include:
Assessing agricultural marketing and competition policy settings in a selection of high profile developing countries to identify policy objectives, policy change processes and the 'market failure' principles driving those changes.
Undertaking a policy comparison across those same developing countries of trends in agricultural sector regulation more broadly to identify and assess efforts being made to facilitate farm level adjustment. Successes and failures will be identified to evaluate the scope for lessons learnt to be applied in an Indian context.
Using the country comparisons and an appropriate public policy framework, undertake 2-3 industry case studies which examine the application of current policy settings at the industry level and how an alternative competition policy regime would apply. These will focus on wheat in Punjab and horticulture products in West Bengal.
Formulate a set of policy recommendations with options that guide the introduction of necessary competition and regulatory reforms for consideration by policy makers.
The project commenced in May 2008 and finishes in October 2010. In the reporting period to 31 May 2009, collaborators focussed on Objectives 1 and 2 involving the preparation of a report comparing agriculture policy settings in the BRICs countries of Brazil, Russia, India and China, as well as South Africa.
This involved significant information gathering, but at the same time provided the opportunity to develop a shared understanding among collaborators of relevant microeconomic reform and 'role of government' principles as they relate to pro-competition policy. It has also provided the opportunity to engage with key Indian Government agencies.
Preliminary findings from the BRICs country comparison were reported in a paper presented to the 2009 Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Conference. Findings included that the outcomes from policy reform have been mixed in terms of their consistency with accepted microeconomic reform principles:
emphasis has often been placed on privatisation initiatives, rather than on broader regulatory reform;
direct regulation in agriculture (industrial policy) appears to have reduced government incentives to progress competition law initiatives in the agri-food chain;
similarly, direct regulation in agriculture appears likely to be reducing government incentives to consider alternative approaches to poverty and the maintenance of socially acceptable levels of farm family welfare; and
strong growth in the non-agricultural sectors in most developing countries may also be having the effect of making direct regulation and transfer payments more 'affordable' and less of a priority for reform.
Of some further concern was that reform efforts to date appear largely to represent a set of responses to economic crises and WTO pressures, and for the most part, have failed to provide a legacy of ongoing, internally-driven, policy reform processes.
The Stage 1 Report comparing agricultural policy settings in the BRICs economies will be finalised following stakeholder feedback at an 'agricultural policy reform conference' tentatively scheduled to be held in Delhi in November 2009. Professor Allan Fels AO, Dean of the Australia and New Zealand School of Government, will provide a keynote address on competition policy in developing countries.

Recent ACIAR research on trade reform and Indian agriculture found that trade policy reform needs to be complemented by 'behind-the-border' reforms if government objectives of improved productivity, higher rural employment and incomes and enhanced food security are to be met. Project ADP/2007/062 titled 'Facilitating Efficient Agricultural Markets in India: An Assessment of Competition and Regulatory Reform Requirements' therefore focuses on facilitating the development of agricultural policy settings which will enable Indian farmers to efficiently adjust to a less regulated marketing environment including an appropriate competition policy regime.
The project is being undertaken collaboratively between NSW Industry & Investment, India's National Council of Applied Economic Research, La Trobe, Melbourne and Exeter Universities and the Australia and New Zealand School of Government.
Project objectives include:
1. Assessing agricultural marketing and competition policy settings in a selection of high profile developing countries to identify policy objectives, policy change processes and the 'market failure' principles driving those changes.
2. Undertaking a policy comparison across those same developing countries of trends in agricultural sector regulation more broadly to identify and assess efforts being made to facilitate farm level adjustment. Successes and failures will be identified to evaluate the scope for lessons learnt to be applied in an Indian context.
3. Using the country comparisons and an appropriate public policy framework, undertake 2-3 industry case studies which examine the application of current policy settings at the industry level and how an alternative competition policy regime would apply. These will focus on wheat in Punjab and horticulture products in West Bengal.
4. Formulate a set of policy recommendations with options that guide the introduction of necessary competition and regulatory reforms for consideration by policy makers.
The project commenced in May 2008 and finishes in October 2010. In the reporting period to 31 May 2010, collaborators focussed on Objectives 1, 2 and 3.
The Mid-term project workshop in Delhi was postponed from May 2009 to 24 November 2009 due to the unforseen scheduling of the Indian national election in April 2009. The December Workshop was an important project outcome and milestone and provided the opportunity to discuss the project and its future policy reform and methodological directions with Indian Government officials, stakeholders, the Project Steering Committee and collaborators. The Workshop titled 'Achieving Food Security in India: Improving Competition, Markets and the Efficiency of Supply Chains', was a significant event for ACIAR and other project collaborators, being opened by the Australian High Commissioner, Mr Peter Varghese, and having Professor Allen Fels AO, Dean, Australia and New Zealand School of Government as Keynote Speaker and Professor Ramesh Chand, National Professor, NCAP as the Chief Guest.
The Mid-term Workshop focussed on the regulatory reform case studies being undertaken throughout 2010. The case studies focus on wheat and horticulture and involve supply chain analysis whereby regulatory restrictions on competition are being documented and subject to a 'market failure' assessment. Following discussions among project collaborators it was also decided that the regulatory supply chain assessment will also involve estimation of price correlations between farm-gate, wholesale and retail to assess the relative significance of regulatory impediments to competition.
An important Mid-term Workshop outcome was the opportunity to link the need for regulatory reform to food security and declining productivity in India agriculture which is of significant interest to Indian policy makers. The idea that regulatory reform could facilitate adjustment in a way that enables India's comparative production advantages to be better achieved as well as enhanced productivity and food security, now represents an important project theme which has created significant interest in the case study outcomes and the lessons that can be applied more broadly.
The Mid-term Workshop and interactions with the Project Steering Committee also gave rise to an unplanned project outcome in the form of the opportunity to draft a paper for inclusion in the 2010 'India Infrastructure Report' prepared by the Infrastructure Development Finance Company. The paper titled 'Is there a Role for Agricultural Offsets in Sustainable Infrastructure Development: A Preliminary Assessment of Issues', is a policy discussion paper which identifies issues associated with Indian agriculture potentially becoming a provider of carbon offsets to other greenhouse gas emitting sectors of the Indian economy. The paper is directly relevant to the broader project in that it identifies new policy settings for agriculture, such as the repositioning of input subsidies to promote carbon-based farming systems.
The Stage 1 Report comparing agricultural policy settings in the BRICs economies is currently being finalised following stakeholder feedback at the Mid-term Project Workshop in November which indicated a need to further consider the impact of agricultural policy reform on agricultural productivity in the BRICs economies. Recent World Bank reviews of agricultural policy in the BRICs economies are also being incorporated.

The issue of scale has become paramount for the effective evaluation of watershed development (WSD) programs. This study examines the effectiveness of WSD at meso-scale (1500-10000hectares) in Anantapur and Prakasam districts in Andhra Pradesh. The project enjoys the active support of the AP Department of Rural Development (DRD).
The project has taken the first steps to providing an integrated evaluation model including hydrologic, agronomic, environmental, economic and social equity issues. It is designed to have a number of stand alone input models and to deal with scale from the household to the village and through to the broader watershed scale. The full structure of the model can be obtained from the project team (geoff [dot] syme [at] ecu [dot] edu [dot] au). This model will guide future research and will be iteratively revised as our understanding of the multifaceted, interactive processes evolves and data collection and analysis continues.
Data are currently being gathered of watershed variables in the area, land use, groundwater and surface water resources, population characteristics and so on. A community survey has been prepared to establish WSD outcomes in terms of physical, natural, social, human and financial capitals, and how these change over time in response to climate variability and other drivers. The questionnaire is also designed to assess community resilience and address perceptions of equity and scale.

A] Socio-Economic Progress
Technical and socioeconomic pilots (intensive and extensive field visits) have been conducted in identified or selected districts of Kurnool, Anantapur and Prakasam districts. Two hydrological units were identified for the study. The sample villages were identified in each hydrological unit for carrying out the detailed socioeconomic and livelihood survey. Three program villages and one control village from each unit have been identified i.e., a total of 8 villages spreading over three districts (Table 1).
Villages have been selected at the Upstream; Mid-stream and Down-stream and a matching control village has been selected (Table 2). Qualitative and quantitative tools have been developed- Focus Group Discussions and a survey. Two questionnaires (one at the village level and the other at the household level) have been developed.
The field Instruments were piloted and revised to suit the integrated model and the socioeconomic data. Qualitative information was elicited using the Focus group discussions - four FGDs in each village i.e., a total of 24 FGDs The first round of data collection has been completed in all the sample villages covering 566 households. Data entry is complete.
[B] Hydrology and Land Use
Data on general information, land use, number of water harvesting structures, bore-well water levels and discharge volume, daily rainfall and crop water budgeting for the villages of the selected Hydrological Unit Networks has been procured from the NGO - BIRDS.
NGRI team has just completed the fieldwork at Prakasam and the Anantapur watershed. This included a complete well inventory, water level measurements as well as geophysical logging in the abandoned wells, interviewing people about the scenarios from the
last 15-20 years. The same data has been collected from the second watershed in Gooty. The pre-monsoon (minimum) groundwater levels have been collected and the post-monsoon (maximum) groundwater levels will be collected during the last part of this year. The team is working with DEEPA to clarify apparent data anomalies. Preliminary crop and water use data suitable for the Bayesian Network modelling has been collected.

[C] Integrated Outcomes
An integrated model is being developed that will incorporate crop production and water use and hydrological (surface water and groundwater) models in addition to knowledge gained from extensive household surveys in villages in two case study catchments. The integrated model is expected to link hydrology models with seasonal outputs from crop models. The outputs from the hydrology and crop model feed into socio-economic models together with relevant socio-economic data for the villages. Measures of equity and resilience will be developed to assess differences in outcomes between villages (e.g. upstream, downstream) and within villages (e.g. income groups, gender, land ownership, etc) and changes that over the modelled time period in response to (e.g.) hydrology scenarios. A schematic of the links and scale of the model components is shown below

All parties officially approved the project in late February 2009 whereupon the first tranche of funding was made available. Starting after this and working around the Indian General Election, the first inception meeting was held in May 2009, in Hyderabad. The meeting was used to establish a dialogue between the Andhra Pradesh Department of Rural Development (APDRD), NGOs operating in the sphere of Watershed Development (WSD), representatives from the Department of Primary Industry (Victoria) and the research team.
The meetings included the Special Commissioner, Rural Development, Dr. Tirupatiah, Mr Sri S Kishan Das, Joint Commissioner, Department of Rural Development, Ms. D.Kalpana, Asst.Project Coordinator,TSU, Office of the Special Commissioner, Rural Development, Ms. Damayanthi, Collector, Mahaboobnagar District, Mr Samuel, Asst. Project Director, District Water Management Agency (DWMA), Mahaboobnagar. The meeting included a detailed visit to the Jainallipur Watershed and village in Mahboobnagar District and an extended briefing and dialog at the DWMA office, Mahaboobnagar with the District & Mandal officials.
Interaction with APDRD and other state and local government groups provided insights into the most recent reforms to WSD including the extensive association and support to the program from the National Rural Employment Guarantee (NREG) scheme. The officials re-emphasised the urgency for institutional analysis in this field. Representatives from the APDRD expressed the view that the project should help inform the design of institutions required to deliver against the new national WSD framework. In that context the direct impacts of the project and the adoption pathways are likely to be more overt than originally planned.
To date, and with the assistance of APDRD, the research team has established a sampling frame for assembling case data. A range of other tasks have been distributed amongst the research group to progress the higher-order analysis of policy and its interpretation and implementation by state agencies.

The project is broadly on track with the original work plan. Some variation has occurred with more in-depth work on particular tasks. More time and effort was spent undertaking detailed case studies of a diverse sample of watersheds. This is expected to lead to a thorough understanding of the experience and the institutional processes and will thus be highly beneficial to the subsequent parts of the project. . The design of the survey instruments and the survey proper were postponed until the case study work was completed. The initial exploration for the case studies showed considerable diversity in the Watershed Development (WSD) program and its implementation. Accordingly, it was adjudged best not to deploy the wider empirical survey without a more detailed understanding of the nuances of each facet of the WSD program.
The project work started with meetings, presentations and field visits in Andhra Pradesh in May 2009 along with the AP-Department of Rural Development (APDRD) and the Indian and Australian researchers. This resulted in good working contacts and understanding.
A detailed set of case studies was completed in early 2010 and this formed the basis of a series of meetings, workshops and field visits held in Australia to enhance the knowledge and understanding of the institutional issues in watershed development for further study.
The invitees to these activities comprised the following:
Mr. K.Vidyasagar, I.F.S, Special Commissioner - Rural Development, AP
Mr. S.Kishan Das, Joint Commissioner - Rural Development, AP
Ms. M.Janaki, I.A.S - Project Director, DWMA, Chittoor, AP
Mr. M.Surender - Project Director, DWMA, Kurnool, AP
Dr. Alok Sikka, National Rainfed Area Authority (NRAA), New Delhi
Prof. Vasant Gandhi, Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad
Mr. Vaibhav Bhamoriya, Doctoral Student, Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad
Dr. Floriane Clement, International Water Management Institute, Hyderabad, AP
The visit and meetings culminated in a symposium that formed part of the Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics (AARES) conference in Adelaide in February. In addition to providing a vehicle for interaction with Australia agencies and researchers (e.g. Murray-Darling Basin Authority; State water and catchment management agencies), the visit assisted in refining areas of overlap between Indian WSD policy and Australian policies in NRM and water. Representatives of sister ACIAR projects were also involved
Important synergies include the difficulties of enumerating natural resource outcomes against specific activities and gaps in the knowledge about institutional arrangements that deliver the best return for public investment in NRM. In this regard recent developments in the funding of catchment management organisations in Australia and the development of the Murray-Darling Basin Plan around ecological outcomes offered a useful basis for comparing WSD and sharing lessons in institutional design.
In addition to considering the efficacy of lower-order institutions (e.g. catchment and farmer groups in the Australian milieu) the project is also designed to include the impact of higher-order institutions in WSD in India. During the reporting period initial interviews with state and federal WSD offices were undertaken and this is presently being refined into a detailed report that focuses on potential gaps and weaknesses in the institutional hierarchy. This part of the work has been slightly delayed due to the ill-health of a core member of the IWMI research team.
The Andhra Pradesh Department of Rural Development (APDRD) remains intimately involved in the project and committed to the outcomes of the work, especially given the imperative for APDRD to implement WSD under new guidelines in the coming months. At the national level, the National Rainfed Area Authority (NRAA) was well-represented at the meetings in Australia and continues to strongly support the project.

Most elements of the project are on track although some delays have been experienced with particular components of the work. The collaboration with Indian Government officials and a strong working relationship with representatives of the AP government is a hallmark of this project. Accordingly, there are grounds for being optimistic about the adoption and integration of findings within the broader policy approaches to Watershed Development WSD)
Attempts have been made to synchronise the work with other projects funded by ACIAR in this domain. Coordination across projects remains a challenge, especially in light of the absence of dedicated resources to devote to this task and the differing work schedules.
An extensive data set comprising over 500 beneficiary households has now been assembled. The sample covers 3 districts in AP and 18 villages in total. Purposeful sampling has ensured that the data also cover differing WSD programs. These data capture the on-ground dimensions of different manifestations of WSD. Data input has been completed and preliminary empirical analysis commenced. Analysis of these data is expected to provide valuable insights to inform policy implementation as new guidelines are in the process of being executed.
The higher-level analysis is being managed by IWMI with oversight from the Project Leadership group. The activities assigned to IWMI under the project relate to Objective 2. Progress against this objective was delayed in 2010 in large part as a result of the ill-health of key personnel. Nonetheless a concerted effort has been made since November 2010 to expedite work and bring the work plan back to schedule. The draft of the report on high level institutions based on a comprehensive review of literature and official documentation has been completed and will be finalized by May 2011. A methodology for the analysis of watershed institutions has been developed. This method is based on the framework by Clement (2010). This approach is specifically tailored for analysing the governance of natural resources outlined in an article titled 'Analysing Decentralized Natural Resource Governance: Proposition for a "politicized" IAD framework Clement, F. (2010) 'Analysing Decentralised Natural Resource Governance: Proposition for a "politicised" IAD framework', Policy Sciences, 43, (2), pp. 129-156.
. The methodology will be appropriately modified and documented as an output on research methodology of this project.
Efforts pertaining to the Australian components of the work have been slightly modified, in response to emerging policy challenges. Originally, the project was expected to hone in on the institutional dilemmas attending natural resource management generally and the related federalism issues faced by regional catchment management organisations. While this remains an important focus, the research team has also sort to apply institutional design principles, specifically in the context of environmental water and the Murray-Darling Basin Plan. This is likely to have strong synergies with the WSD program where the question of nested governance arrangements is still unresolved. In the case of the Murray-Darling Basin the key issue is the extent and manner in which federal, state and local authorities can effectively deliver on-ground improvements to natural assets via environmental watering. In addition to adding to the currency of the project, this approach has also provided a wider audience for the WSD project. More specifically, the interest in the MDB Plan has provided opportunities to bring other researchers into contact with the WSD policy approach in AP.

The opening workshop for the project was held in July 2007 and was attended by staff from Dinas Perkebunan, University of Hasanuddin and Mars Inc., farmer leaders and the project partners. The meeting provided an opportunity for presentations and group discussions addressing the key problems faced by cocoa smallholders. Visits made to farmer groups in South, South-East and West Sulawesi provinces during the year allowed project staff to explain the process of selecting and testing clones and its potential value in farm rehabilitation to farmers. Since many farmers wish to rehabilitate parts of their farms from seedling cocoa, trials were planned (under Objective 1) as part of a rehabilitation process on land cleared of unproductive trees by farmers. Six trials testing twelve clones in four replicate blocks have been established in the three provinces in the districts of Pinrang, North Luwu (Bone-bone), Polmas, North Kolaka and Kolaka (Lambandia, including one trial established by sidegrafting onto mature trees). One further trial is planned. Clones for testing were top-grafted onto rootstock seedlings in 2007 and, in early 2008, planted in trials at sites selected with the guidance of project staff from Mars Inc. Clones selected for the trials include genotypes with promising high-yielding or resistance characteristics identified by Mars Inc., a previous ACIAR project and local farmers. Two clones will be common to all the trials and act as standards. The project has initiated the establishment of a field facility for cocoa research in Soppeng, South Sulawesi on 5 hectares provided for field research by Dinas Perkebunan Selatan. This will form part of a cooperative effort under the Cocoa Sustainability Partnership (CSP), a forum of private and government agencies concerned with cocoa research and development in Sulawesi. A nursery and well with a pump have been constructed. The well will provide only some of the water needed for the ACIAR project trials. A further well will be required to provide sufficient water for the two trials planned at the site (Objective 2): to test hybrid progeny and selected clones against pests and diseases. Staff management, infra-structure requirements and organisational matters for the field centre were discussed in detail and responsibilities allocated. Hybrid crosses for the Soppeng trial site have already been made and seeds of some of these crosses produced. Also, trial sites have been marked out and temporary shade planted. But the establishment of the hybrid testing trial has been delayed by the higher-than-expected costs for preparing the site for planting. Approximately fifty genotypes for the clone testing trial at the Soppeng site have been grafted onto rootstock seedlings. A project staff member has commenced a PhD study at Gadjah Mada University (also part of Objective 2). The study will focus on forms of resistance in cocoa pods to cocoa pod borer. Meetings with farmer groups and extension officers established some priorities for research on options for pest/disease management (Objective 3). Feedback indicated that the major pest/disease concerns of farmers were Phytophthora pod rot and vascular-streak dieback. Demonstrations of cultural management methods (pruning, sanitation and fertiliser application) and phosphonate application were conducted in South-East Sulawesi. The phosphonate, to be tested against Phytophthora palmivora, is applied using slow-release implants placed in the stem and major branches. Further trials are planned for the coming year. In visits to farmer groups made by ICCRI, BRIEC and Australian project staff, feedback sessions were conducted in conjunction with practical training demonstrations. The basic design of a proposed cocoa management handbook relevant to Sulawesi farmers was discussed. However, to avoid confusing or conflicting advice it was decided that such educational material should be prepared in collaboration with other members of the CSP. The aims and methodology of a socio-economic study (for Objective 4) were discussed and farmer surveys were commenced in West and South Sulawesi. This study will be continued with surveys conducted at six monthly intervals in three provinces.

Evaluations of the cocoa trees in trials established in Polman, Kolaka, North Kolaka, North Luwu and Pinrang Districts, Sulawesi, each testing twelve cocoa clones, have commenced. These trials have provided data for individual clones on flowering and incidence of vascular-streak dieback (VSD), the most important disease affecting vegetative stages of cocoa. VSD has been identified as one of the most significant problems for farmers, many of whom wish to rehabilitate their farms with new cocoa clones or even change over to other crops as a result of the impact of this disease.

Australian project staff participated in a meeting hosted by a USAID funded project in Makassar (June 2008) to discuss the problem posed by the VSD epidemic. Further discussions on the nature of the VSD problem and possible management methods were held in a forum hosted by the Cocoa Sustainability Partnership (CSP). Project staff (Australian and Indonesian) also participated in a cocoa research conference hosted by the Indonesian Coffee and Cocoa Research Institute (ICCRI) and a workshop funded by the Australian government to initiate a new Indonesian government program aimed at revitalisation of cocoa farming in Sulawesi (GERNAS, Gerakan Nasional Percepatan Revitilisasi Kakao Sulawesi), both held in Bali in October/November 2008. The GERNAS workshop identified some major priorities requiring attention for optimal development of smallholder cocoa in Sulawesi and eastern Indonesia.

In field visits to VSD-affected areas in Java and Sulawesi, Australian project staff reassessed symptoms of VSD, which were found to differ from previous reports and descriptions. The reasons for these changed symptoms are unknown but could possibly be a result of declining nutrient status of the soil.

Progeny of ten hybrid crosses have been raised in the CSP (Cocoa Sustainability Partnership) nursery at Padali, Soppeng. A proportion of the seedlings obtained from seven crosses have been planted in the trial site in Padali and planting of the remaining seedlings is in progress. Temporary shade is provided by Moghania macrophylla and permanent shade trees have been planted. The establishment of the clone screening trial planned for the same location has been delayed due to failure of the grafted seedlings. More rootstock seedlings were prepared and they have been regrafted with more than seventy cocoa selections, including local Sulawesi selections. The clones will be transferred to the trial site in the next wet season.

Farmer group training sessions on cultural methods of pest and disease management were conducted by Indonesian Coffee and Cocoa Research Institute (and Biotechnology Research Institute for Estate Crops staff members accompanied by Australian project staff during two visits in 2008 and a further visit in 2009. Under the guidance of project staff members, management demonstration plots were established by a farmer group in North Luwu (adding to those established in Lambandia in the previous year). A trial was established in Bonebone to test three methods of phosphonate application on cocoa grafts infected with stem canker (caused by the pathogen Phytophthora palmivora). This builds upon a phosphonate trunk injection trial conducted by a previous ACIAR project, CP/2000/102, in Southeast Sulawesi that demonstrated effective control of canker using this method. Socioeconomic surveys to assess uptake among farmers of improved cocoa management techniques have been conducted in Polman and North Luwu with similar surveys planned for North Kolaka. Initial results of the surveys indicate a preference among farmers for labour-saving and high input technologies combined with a trend towards purchasing more land, rather than intensification of cocoa production on currently producing farms. This suggests that the main limitation to implementation of improved pest/disease control and general management methods is a labour shortage, and that highly labour-intensive management methods are unlikely to be adopted by farmers under the current socio-institutional settings of production.

Under a project variation, the project was extended with the inclusion of two new partner institutions in the provinces of Papua and West Papua. Project activities to be conducted in these provinces under the variation include farmer training using IPDM demonstration trials, transfer of cocoa management technologies to locally based government staff and the initiation of clone selection and testing. A five-day workshop with twenty one participants was held in Jayapura, Papua in February 2010. Four cocoa research specialists were invited from Papua New Guinea (PNG) to exchange knowledge with their Indonesian counterparts and to conduct training of local project staff, with local farmers participating in the field training activities. Based on a model developed by a previous ACIAR project in PNG, adjacent plots were established on a cocoa farm in Alang-Alang (in a Wamena migrant area) to demonstrate the effect of different levels of input of labour and materials (such as fertiliser or compost) on production. The workshop included training on other techniques, such as grafting and nursery management. Similar demonstration plots were established the following month in Mandopi, West Papua, with the participation of staff at the University of Papua and of a local Arfak farmer group. This site also provided a focus for training 25 extension agronomists for the cocoa module of an International Fund of Agricultural Development (IFAD)/Antara sponsored program conducted by the University of Papua (April -June 2010). The module includes training on sanitation methods, sidegrafting and the preparation of compost with microbial promoters. Suitable sites on farms have been identified in Papua and West Papua to establish clone testing trials.
In Sulawesi, project staff from Australia and Indonesian partner institutions conducted field training for farmers in July and November 2009 at two of the multi-location clone trial sites. Assessments of pods for pest and disease incidence and severity, yield and bean characteristics as well as flowering and diseases of vegetative plant parts are being conducted at four of the trial sites. The latest harvest season has demonstrated striking differences in yield and resistance between clones. Some clones selected in the program in collaboration with Mars Inc., a co-leader in the ACIAR project, have shown outstanding potential for improved yield and disease resistance and are being keenly sought by farmers.
At the Cocoa Sustainability Partnership field site in Soppeng, most of the hybrid cocoa plants and shade trees were destroyed by a wildfire in August 2009. The nursery was also damaged beyond repair. However, one block in the hybrid plant trial escaped the worst of the damage. Further hybrid screening will be conducted initially in East Java before testing with farmers in Sulawesi. Shade seedlings are being raised in a temporary box nursery to replace the trees burnt by the fire. A total of 600 grafted seedlings of five promising clones were planted in March 2010 for testing at the site. The management of this site has been clarified and it appears still worthwhile to promote this site as a cocoa experimental station in the region.
Links between the project and the Cocoa Research Group at Hasanuddin University were strengthened over the last year. Some third year students were encouraged to undertake their Scripsi Project studies at ACIAR trial sites: one of these showed that basic management techniques (e.g. pruning) increased flowering and decreased the incidence of vascular-streak dieback (VSD) on a farm in Pinrang, and a second study in progress is focusing on patterns of symptom development in VSD-infected shoots. A trial was established in March 2010 with a farmer group in Luwu, South Sulawesi using 800 mature side-grafted cocoa to test the effect of composted cocoa waste material and inorganic fertiliser on yield and pests and diseases; the first monthly evaluation has been completed. Socio-economic surveys of 600 households in Sulawesi have been completed and the data are being analysed as part of an ACIAR-supported PhD study at the University of Sydney. The study has been updated to incorporate an assessment of the GERNAS program, recently introduced by the national government to rejuvenate cocoa production in eastern Indonesia. The PhD thesis of the cocoa breeder who has been a joint leader of our project was completed and passed at Gadjah Madah University in April 2010; the thesis was based on a project on resistance of cocoa to Cocoa Pod Borer supported by the ACIAR Project. Two farmer handbooks have been published and copies distributed. The Project leader gave the McAlpine lecture to the Australasian Plant Pathology Society meeting in Newcastle, September 2009. A number of presentations were made by project staff to the 16th International Cocoa Research Conference, Bali, November 2009 and to the Cocoa Research Unit at The University of the West Indies.

In July 2010, project staff visited project partners in Jayapura (Papua) and Manokwari (West Papua). The Integrated Pest and Disease Management (IPDM) plots, established in Alang-Alang, Papua in February 2010, have continued to be maintained by Mars Inc. field clinic staff. Project staff met with a farmer group in Sentani who expressed enthusiasm for collaborating with the project through BPTP Papua to establish similar IPDM demonstrations of different options in regard to labour and material inputs. Both of the farmer groups and their activities were monitored initially by BPTP Papua but this was interrupted due to the high costs of transportation in Papua. A workshop hosted by the University of Papua to initiate activities in Papua and West Papua under the SMAR/2005/074 extension, was held in Manokwari, with almost all of the project staff attending. Following the workshop, training that targetted farmers, Dinas Perkebunan and local project staff was conducted at the Mandopi IPDM sites by project staff. Third year university students who were using this site for their final year project studies also attended the workshop. The training covered tree management, preparation of compost with microbial promoters including the use of trenches in between tree rows and sanitation to reduce black pod and cocoa pod borer. The Mandopi IPDM plots has also provided a focus for the practical training component of the International Fund of Agricultural Development (IFAD)- and AusAid-sponsered training program for the development of commodities, including cocoa, in rural communities. A clone trial with five clones introduced from Sulawesi and Java grafted onto unproductive trees was established on another farm in Mandopi. This area is prone to flooding, which has been particularly severe in the last 12 months due to higher than usual rainfall, and consequently mortality of the grafts has been high. However, more than fifty grafts of nearly a metre in length had established by May 2011. Five clones have also been topgrafted onto seedlings and will be planted at a location (to be selected) of a higher altitude than Mandopi. A survey of cocoa farmers as part of the socioeconomic objective of the project was initiated in West Papua in cooperation with two BPTP Sulsel staff, who have been conducting similar surveys in Sulawesi. This study aims to elucidate some of the particular issues facing cocoa growers in West Papua, including the central role of social structure. In October 2010, ACIAR held an inter-project meeting in Bali to identify and discuss some of the issues affecting ACIAR projects in Papua. Three project personnel from West Papua and the project coordinator attended the meeting. In Sulawesi, pods in the four clone testing trial sites (three years after planting) have been monitored each fortnight. The results indicate the importance of using a mix of clones on farms, and that testing clone performance locally is essential. In the Polman trial for example, about 30 trees for each of 10 clones produced 153 to 742 pods over the last year. The lowest incidences of cocoa pod borer (CPB) occurred in BR25 and HusbiTori with 8.8 and 9.4 % pods infested, respectively. These clones also produced the highest proportion of healthy (non-infected) pods. However, these clones were susceptible to vascular-streak dieback (VSD), while the clone with the highest level of VSD-resistance (Geni J), was the most susceptible to CPB, with 60.2% pods infested over the year. Phytophthora pod rot (PPR) infection rates were highest in PBC123 and M01 at 24.1% and 23.8%, respectively. These results suggest that resistance traits for CPB, PPR and VSD in these clones are not linked. The recent change occurring in characteristic symptoms of VSD on Indonesian farms and the current research addressing this was presented by the project leader to the 2011 Australasian Plant Pathology Society meeting in Darwin.

First 6 months - Year One
The project commenced on 1st July 2004. The first project planning workshop was held in Bangkok, Thailand from 18th to 24th July 2004. The project leader, Dr Yahya Abawi and the whole Indonesian team participated at the meeting. Restrictions on travel have delayed some key meetings between the Australian and Indonesian teams. However, communication via email, internet, and telephone has enabled progress to be made.
During the reporting period, the project team in Lombok have met regularly and have conducted several workshops on seasonal climate forecasts and FLOWCAST software. A program to train the government officers on understanding FLOWCAST and strategic farming decisions is expected to be conducted between March and June 2005. The training material has already been prepared. To disseminate the project results the expansion of existing linkages to prospective final users such as government institutions, commercial companies and farmers is planned.
The development of the Linear Programming Model (LP) for optimising crop decisions is progressing. The data for refining the LP model and further calibration of the IQQM (Integrated Quantity Quality Model) are being collected. Field visits to Sengkol and Mujur have been conducted to establish 500-1000 ha pilot field trials in irrigated and rain-fed lowland areas in southern Lombok in 2005. Interviews with local farmers have shown there is potential to grow long bean, cucumbers and chillies as the second (rice is the first) and third crops in the region.
To better communicate the progress of the project among the Indonesian team and stakeholders, a project Newsletter or Bulletin has been created. It is published electronically and in hardcopy (limited copies) in both English and Bahasa Indonesia 6 times a year.
Hardcopies of the bulletin will be circulated to universities and Direktorat Balitbang Pertanian Jakarta and government institutions in West Nusa Tenggara.
During the reporting period, considerable effort has been made by the Australian team to develop new and improved tools to incorporate into the CropOptimiser software package. This package provides a graphical user interface to the LP model to optimise different cropping strategies for a range of seasons and climate types. New tools that have been developed include a GIS based user-interface allowing direct interaction with the model through the map itself. An XML-based data mechanism has been included to incorporate a range of user-definable crop templates which can simulate a range of crops such as rice, chilli, vegetables and their combinations. The chart outputting mechanism of the original version of the package has been completely rewritten by using up-to-date software engineering technology, resulting in a much simpler, yet more powerful user-interface to analyse the simulation results and produce an output report. The release of a Beta version of CropOptimiser is expected towards the end of June 2005. Considerable revision has also been made to the IQQM Lombok model. The model configuration of IQQM GUI (Graphical User Interface) version has been completed, which gives the functionality to configure the river systems on GIS-based geographic display. The calibrations have been extended to other sub-systems such as Nyurbayah, Mencongah, Majeli, and Repok Pancor in Jangkok rivers system, the upstream of Mataram (i.e. at Bugbug), and Hilir, Hulu, Batu, Katon, Mujur in Jurang-Satte rivers system. Sacramento models were developed for estimating the flows in Jangkok and Sesaot river. Currently, the meteorological data, hydrological data, and irrigation diversion data that are needed for configuring and calibrating other sections in the system are being gathered in Lombok. The travel by Dr Xike Zhang to Lombok to obtain the data sets for further configuration and calibration of IQQM model is planned for late April 2005.

For 2005, the overall progress of the project can be summarised under the following sub-headings:

1. Development of water allocation model (IQQM)
IQQM (Integrated Quantity and Quality Modelling) is a computer simulation model developed by the Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources, NSW which can simulate river flow, flow routings, water allocation and water use at a catchment scale. In this project, the model is configured to simulate the river-irrigation system in Lombok. Considerable effort has been made by the Indonesian team to collect and digitise a variety of data including meteorological, streamflow and cropping data in the past year. The data have been quality-checked and patched where necessary using statistical methods by the Australian team. Model verification and configuration has progressed well through emails and face-to-face discussions with the Indonesian partners. At the time of this report the IQQM calibration including streamflow and diversion calibration has been completed for the whole system except for two irrigation nodes where data is not available yet. The data collection and fine-tuning of the model is continuing.

2. Generation of long-term meteorological and hydrological data
The aim of the project is to use climate forecasts to improve the management of water resources and irrigation systems in Lombok. To achieve this we need to run model simulations over a long historical data set to capture variability in climate and other management decisions. Long-term (more than 50 years) of meteorological and riverflow data are needed to simulate different scenarios in the IQQM model. Data on rainfall, temperature, solar radiation and riverflow are either limited in length or discontinuous for most of the stations which represent the different catchments in Lombok. A number of models such as Sacramento, IHACRES (identification of unit hydrographs and component flows from rainfall, evaporation and streaflow data), Simhyd and AWBM models were assessed and used to simulate (generate) river inflow and other meteorological data for about 50 years. So far dis-aggregation of daily rainfall (from recorded monthly data) and the generation of climate data for 1950-2000+ have been completed for 12 stations which cover the west and central part of Lombok. The data generation for eastern Lombok is continuing.

3. Development of Flowcast software
Flowcast is developed as a tool to assess the effect of ENSO and other climate predictors on rainfall, streamflow and crop production. Flowcast is designed to provide the necessary interface between simulation output from the IQQM model and climate variables such as the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). Software engineering has seen the continuing development of FlowCast and the new version of FlowCast combines many new features of graphical output analysis along with improved forecast and skill testing capabilities. A prototype version of FlowCast has now been completed, and is currently undergoing testing and debugging.

4. Development of Linear Programming model and CropOptimiser
Linear Programming (LP) and CropOptimiser DSS are designed to use linear optimisation to optimise choice of crop for given climate, land, water, and system constraints. During 2005, work on LP model has focused on data collection, calibration and validation. This work forms the basis of a PhD study by Ir. Ismail Yasin of the University of Mataram.

Considerable progress has been made by the Australian team in the development of the CropOptimiser software. CropOptimiser is developed to combine LP programming and model output through graphical user interface. This will provide greater flexibility and power to generate and display outputs. A prototype will be available by May 2006.

5. Information dissemination and capacity building
During this reporting period, the project personnel from Australia made two trips to Lombok. Activities included field visits, data acquisition, training on IQQM modelling, PhD supervision and presentations in workshops. Field visits and farmer interviews have been conducted by the Indonesian collaborators to investigate and evaluate framers' acceptance of the information and knowledge developed in the project. A report is in preparation. A farmer group has been established in the Batujai irrigation area and field days have been conducted to promote the use of water harvesting and alternative cropping systems in this drought-prone area. Attendees at these workshops included local farmers, village leaders and village chiefs.

6. Water Balance Study in PRB cropping systems of southern Lombok
Work on the water balance study of permanent raised beds started in the latter half of the year. A detailed analysis of water balance in southern Lombok has been conducted by the Australian team using a water balance model (HowLeaky). Preliminary water balance simulations for Mankung show that approximately 130 mm per annum of excess water may be harvested from permanent raised beds (PRB) that could be used to supplement irrigation water during the second season. However, inter-annual variability is high and further analysis will be carried out using long term climate data to determine the impact of extended drought and ENSO on water harvesting and implications for infrastructure to store and re-use the excess water.

The overall progress of the project can be summarised under the following sub-headings:

1. Configuration and Validation of the IQQM model (Integrated Quantity and Quality Model) for Lombok.
During 2006, the configuration and validation of the IQQM simulation model was completed. IQQM is used to simulate catchment-scale river flows, flow-routings, water allocations and water-use. These outputs can then be used for input into the decision support systems (FlowCast, CropOptimiser) to forecast irrigation water allocations and improve decision-making on water diversion and crop-management (e.g. planting area, crop type) in Lombok. To capture the long term variability in climate, setting up IQQM requires long-term meteorological and river-inflow data. This involved synthesising daily rainfall and temperature data from long-term monthly records using the WeatherMan package. These data were then used to calibrate the IHACRES rainfall-runoff model against short-term historical streamflow records to generate long-term daily river inflows and sub-catchment residual inflows. Using these generated data as inputs, IQQM was calibrated against short-term (1995-2000) available streamflow, water diversion and crop requirement data. The model can now generate more than 50 years of daily streamflow data for the 57 irrigation areas in the Lombok irrigation area. This work was presented at ANZ Climate Forum in Canberra, Australia in 2006. A study of streamflow forecasting in the Jankok River has also been completed and presented at the 2nd International Rice Congress in New Delhi, India in 2006. Simulating and forecasting of streamflow in other rivers is continuing.

2. Development of Decision support systems
Development of the key decision support software systems has continued, along with a new program - Pump Test Analyser:
CropOptimiser is a decision support tool for optimising cropping patterns for different climate, land, water and system constraints. The first full prototype version of the software that includes the Linear Programming (LP) model was developed during the year. The LP model was converted into C++ from its EXCEL prototype form and embedded into the highly graphical interface, and linked to a custom-designed editor for inputting climatic, hydrologic, agronomic and social constraints.
FlowCast is decision support software for assessing the effects of climate on rainfall, streamflow and crop production. It provides the necessary connection between the IQQM model outputs and climate variables such as ENSO to develop seasonal climate outlooks, and forecasts of water availability. During 2006, a new graphical user interface was developed to minimise program complexity combining both spatial and point-based outputs. New analyses including LEPS (Linear Error in Probability Space), real-time forecast verification, Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) testing, interactive probability and analogue outputs have been added.
HowLeaky is a landuse evaluation tool based upon a simple one-dimensional water balance model for evaluating different soils, vegetation, tillage, irrigation, pesticide and nutrient scenarios. During 2006, it was modified and updated to include specific crops, soils and management scenarios (including raised-bed and traditional agricultural practices) for Lombok.
Pump Test Analyser was developed in 2006 to analyse borehole pumping tests undertaken in Lombok during 2005/2006. The program inputs drawdown and recovery data and calculates maximum pumping rates and specific capacity for a user-specified time-scale in the form of a customizable report. This software will be used in a study to determine the potential groundwater resources for irrigation in Southern Lombok.

3. Information dissemination and capacity building
During this reporting period, project personnel from Australia made two trips to Lombok including the ACIAR project review in September. Two training courses were held including training of the staff from BMG in the use of seasonal climate forecasting (SCF), and a 5-day IQQM training course for the Public Works and UNRAM teams. The Indonesian team also conducted a workshop on 19-20 October 2006 on the importance of the project on irrigation and agricultural strategies at district and subdistrict levels in collaboration with the Dinas Pertanian (Department of Agriculture) program.

Dissemination of project outputs was introduced to farmer groups, field officers and government agencies in Batujai and Kawo. However, a significant opportunity was lost to communicate to farmers about the consequences of the 2006 El Nino, which resulted in a delayed onset to the monsoon season and caused sowing failures in dryland areas. This can be used as a learning experience for the future communication strategy which includes strengthening the climate knowledge and information exchange between the governing and extension bodies.

4. Shallow ground-water study
A survey was carried out to understand the characteristics of shallow ground water in 197 shallow wells in Southern Lombok. Measurements included depth to groundwater, draw-down and recovery of wells, and water quality (NO3, EC, TDS, and pH). Results showed that the depth of the water table is highly correlated to the ground surface-elevation, transmisivity varies seasonally, while the quality of ground water is good and safe for domestic purposes and agriculture. Further work is continuing to assess the extent of groundwater for supplementary irrigation.

5. Water balance study in PRB cropping systems of southern Lombok
A water balance study of permanent raised beds (PRB) was completed at the start of the year using the HowLeaky software for local crops and soils. Results show that approximately 130mm of excess water may be available with PRB from Phase 1 (Nov-Mar) although inter-annual variability is extreme. Although carryover is insufficient to fully irrigate a similar area in Phase 2 (Mar-June), restricting irrigation to early crop development (80mm) may provide satisfactory yields providing enough storage is available. Further work is continuing to assess the feasibility and economics of such storage systems. Mulching the PRB had little effect on the crop irrigation requirement (10-15mm) because while it reduces evaporation, it increases deep drainage with minimal net benefit.

Background
This project aims to use seasonal climate forecasting to improve water resource and irrigation systems management in Lombok, Indonesia. Agricultural production in Lombok is predominantly rice-based and is largely influenced by high climate variability that, in part, is associated with the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. Therefore, using ENSO-based seasonal climate forecasts (SCFs) ahead of the growing season can potentially improve agricultural productivity in favourable seasons and reduce the risk of crop losses in dry years through tactical adjustment of crops and water allocation. Key objectives of the project are to:
Collect, synthesise, model and collate hydrologic and climatic data for integration into a climate-based decision support system;
Develop decision support tools for optimising choice of crop, crop-area and irrigation water allocation based on seasonal climate information;
Promote SCF-based planning amongst irrigators, government officials and community leaders; and
Build local capacity in the development and operational use of decision support systems.
Summary of progress, June 2007 to May 2008
The scientific components of the project are now mostly complete. However, collation and dissemination of results and outputs remain ongoing, with few tangible impacts observable at the community level. This reflects the complexity and the "systems" nature of the project, which relies on the integration of many completed components to produce useful information for dissemination to stakeholders. Progress in this reporting period has mainly focused on finalisation of the scientific components, and dissemination of the project outputs to the government and provincial agencies with several workshops and training activities conducted both in Australia and Indonesia.
Decision support development
Significant work was undertaken in the previous reporting periods in data collection (meteorological, hydrologic and agronomic), patching and synthesis for input and calibration of the hydrologic model (IQQM). Modelling outputs include simulated catchment-scale river flows (50-year daily streamflow), flow-diversions, and water allocations and usage at fifty-seven irrigation weirs in southern Lombok. The hydrological model has now been configured to simulate "historical" water allocation for two demand scenarios (existing cropping pattern and maximum planted area). Three stochastic realisations of streamflow were used in each analysis to capture model uncertainty.
These data are now available for input into the FlowCast and CropOptimiser decision support software for tactical decision-making. FlowCast was developed to generate probabilistic forecasts of rainfall, streamflow and water allocation based on key climate predictors. CropOptimiser (a linear programming (LP) model) uses probabilistic forecast distributions from FlowCast to optimise choice of crop and planted-area for different seasons and climate types. Prototype versions of these software packages were developed in previous reporting periods. However, continued development over this period has now seen operational versions of both software packages released.
FlowCast was significantly modified during the reporting period to simplify its operation, and to enhance its station and spatial analysis capabilities. Powerful forecast analysis tools were added, and the graphical user interface was redesigned to minimise the operational requirements of the software, and to hide the complexity inherent in a state-of-the-art technology. FlowCast was formally released to the Indonesian collaborators at a national meeting of the Indonesian National Agency for Meteorology and Geophysics (BMG) in Jakarta in April 2008.
CropOptimiser was also extensively modified to produce the first fully functional version. The algorithms used in FlowCast to calculate forecast distributions have now been directly incorporated into CropOptimiser to minimise the operations required to generate output. This now facilitates direct integration of IQQM outputs into CropOptimiser allowing for testing of different scenarios based on alternative IQQM simulations. Data management algorithms have been developed to aggregate IQQM node outputs based on defined irrigation sub-area configurations, and to average different climate realisations. New reporting capabilities have also been added and the software debugged and tested.
Another accomplishment of the project was the creation of an internet-based database system to manage and store the vast amounts of collected input data. This is potentially one of the most important outputs of this project that can be used for current and future research dealing with climate and water resources management in Lombok. It was envisaged that a similar database would also be generated containing simulation results covering a range of climate scenarios, allocation decisions and planting options. This task has been delayed due to organisational changes in Australia and difficulties in recruitment of staff which ensued. Nevertheless, modifications made to the decision support tools during 2007 will greatly facilitate this task. We will be seeking approval to undertake this work after the final reporting period using unspent project funds.
A further objective of this project negotiated with ACIAR in July 2006, in collaboration with the La Trobe University (SMCN/1999/005), was to conduct a water balance modelling study to assess the potential of water harvesting from the raised-bed systems in southern Lombok, using the HowLeaky software package. Earlier work involved modifying the HowLeaky simulation code and creating parameter-files for conditions in Lombok. In this reporting period, HowLeaky was rewritten to simplify its operation and to directly simulate multiple cropping cycles, and run batch simulations for a detailed sensitivity analysis of different parameters. Outputs from HowLeaky were used in FlowCast to assess the impact of seasonal climatic variability on field-runoff in the southern Lombok region. This study is ongoing and will be completed by the final project review, with an additional site studied.
Another requirement of the project is to assess the feasibility of using groundwater as a supplementary source of irrigation in the drier areas of southern Lombok. A survey of 197 wells and multiple pumping tests have been carried out, to determine safe groundwater yield and water quality in the region. This data was reanalysed in this reporting period to better quantify the results. Results showed that shallow groundwater resources are suitable for agriculture but are limited in capacity and can only be used as a supplementary source using "hand-watering" methods.
Consultation, information dissemination and capacity building
Information exchanges continued throughout this period in both Australia and Indonesia. There now appears to be a good understanding of project functionality and responsibilities between key partners, with relative success in scientific capacity building. Unfortunately, at this stage in the project, information dissemination to key stakeholders is still limited, focusing on promoting the theory and advantages of the technology, rather than introducing effective changes into the local communities. It is unlikely that any practical outcomes of this research were implemented at the farm level to influence decision-making, despite attempts to do so.
These issues were addressed in August 2007 through a workshop involving the Australian team and key Indonesian scientists in Toowoomba (Australia). A communication strategy and detailed plan of local capacity building were developed for disseminating project outputs to farmer groups, field officers and government agencies.
In Indonesia, efforts in dissemination of information focused on three different levels including: scientific academics and government officials; field extension and water gate managers; and village leaders and farmers. National workshops were held in Jakarta (PERHIMPI) and Bali (related to United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)) where papers were presented on the impacts of climate variability on agriculture and the use of FlowCast as a tool for seasonal climate forecasting in Lombok. At the regional level, workshops and training programs were conducted to increase officer understanding on climate variability to introduce the concepts of decision support systems. Informal meetings and consultations took place with the head of Bappeda Provincial Office and the head of Department of Agriculture at District of Central Lombok, on adopting the decision support tools for strategic cropping management. Officers from Dinas Pertanian (Department of Agriculture) conducted field days and workshops for local farmers on climate, while the Indonesian project team also visited some farmers' group associations to lecture on the local impacts of climate variability and climate change.

The process of signing of all agreements for the project by all the parties was completed in late January, 2003 and work for the project commenced in earnest in February 2003.

There have been two main foci of the work since commencement in February 2003. More specifically, these were:

1. The development of an assessment framework for analysing water institutions in a variety of contexts. The framework is central to the project as it will be used to guide analysis and instruct fieldwork in particular.
2. Convening the project-initiating international workshop to review and refine the proffered framework. The most convenient and earliest date that would accommodate the target group of participants for the workshop was July 16-18, 2003.

The planning and review necessary to accomplish the first objective ascribed to the project was completed in the report period (2002-03). This objective relates to the development of an overarching framework for comparing a range of institutional issues in the water sector.

Non-trivial challenges commonly arise from trying to develop this type of framework, not least because of the institutional specificity arising from unique resource and cultural factors. Thus, the main focus in this project has been to develop measures or criteria that are not constrained by specific contexts. Put simply, the resulting framework provides a vehicle for transferring the lessons of institutional success rather than the institutions per se.

An extensive review of the water institutions literature and the principles used to underpin successful elements of Australian water reform were employed to identify key institutional design features. The five key criteria identified were:

Clear institutional objectives
Connectedness between formal and informal institutions
Adaptability
Appropriateness of scale and
Compliance capacity

In addition to identifying important institutional criteria for managing water resources, a range of heuristics and empirical estimation techniques have also been identified that will assist in evaluating various institutions in differing contexts in India (i.e. objectives 2-5 of the project).

The framework and the various heuristic and empirical measures was exposed to scrutiny by convening a workshop of water bureaucrats, academics and irrigation and resource managers. This workshop was scheduled for 17th and 18th July 2003 and the related organisation and logistics to facilitate the workshop were undertaken in year 1 of the project.

Participants for the workshop within the reporting period included a range of national and international water experts and practitioners. These included Mrs Radha Singh, Secretary of Water Resources for the Government of India, Professor Rathinasamay Saleth, Senior Institutional Economist with the International Water Management Institute and Don Blackmore, CEO, Murray-Darling Basin Commission, Mr George Warne, CEO, Murray Irrigation Limited, Mr David Hariss, Regional Manager, Department of Infrastructure Planning and the Environment (NSW), Dr Alistair Watson, Distinguished Fellow, Australian Resource and Agricultural Economics Society and other luminaries.

The process of signing for the project was completed in late January, 2003 and work for the project commenced in earnest in February 2003. In the first 18 months of operating two main activities were achieved:
1. the development of an assessment framework for analysing water institutions in a variety of contexts
2. putting in place the arrangements to conduct the project-initiating international workshop to review and refine the proffered framework.

This has allowed the project to focus on five main areas:
1. the refinements and extension of the theoretical elements of the institutional framework following scrutiny by participants at the initial international workshop
2. selection and case analysis of 16 institutional scenarios in India covering ground water, check dams, co-operatives and water user associations
3. the development of statistically robust items for measuring the perceptions of irrigators as they pertain to the main elements of water institutions
4. development of a survey instrument for making comparisons between water institutions in India and Australia
5. undertaking field work in India in January 2004 in Mesahana District looking at the legal elements of groundwater and those rules evolved by the local communities for the operation of shared wells.
The initial institutional review highlighted five main criteria that warranted consideration. Namely:
clear institutional objectives
connectedness between formal and informal institutions
adaptability
appropriateness of scale
compliance capacity.
Hitherto, calibration of institutional criteria has relied largely on a range of heuristics. One of the significant contributions of this project is the attempt to develop and apply empirical estimation techniques.
To ensure that empirical measures are meaningful in the differing contexts of irrigation in India, an extensive situational analysis was initially undertaken in the second reporting period. Examining the performance of water institutions has historically proven problematic in the absence of a metric that can be applied in differing contexts. During the second reporting period a range of items were trialled to test the reliability of survey items capable of accurately capturing irrigator's perceptions of institutional performance. Developed initially within Australia, these items are of a sufficiently broad level to allow comparisons across different settings. For example, four items now consistently capture irrigator's underlying perceptions about the clarity of the rules under which the institution operates. Similarly, four items consistently measure the irrigators' views on the adaptability of rules. Combined with on-the-ground data these items (20 in total) are to be incorporated in modelling work scheduled for the third reporting period.

Work for the project commenced in earnest in February 2003. In the first reporting period (concluding 1 July 2003) two main activities were reported. Namely:
1. The development of an assessment framework for analysing water institutions in a variety of contexts.
2. Putting in place the arrangements to conduct the project-initiating international workshop to review and refine the proffered framework.

In the second reporting period the project focussed on five main areas:
1. The refinements and extension of the theoretical elements of the institutional framework following scrutiny by participants at the initial international workshop.
2. Selection and case analysis of 16 institutional scenarios in India covering ground water, check dams, co-operatives and water user associations.
3. The development of statistically robust items for measuring the perceptions of irrigators as they pertain to the main elements of water institutions.
4. Development of a survey instrument for making comparisons between water institutions in India and Australia
5. Undertaking field work in India in Jan 2004 in Mesahana District looking at the legal elements of groundwater and those rules evolved by the local communities for the operation of shared wells.

In this reporting period five main tasks were undertaken. Namely:
1. Deriving observations and lessons from the case studies conducted earlier
2. Designing and refining the major survey instruments for primary field data collection in India
3. Identification of survey locations, development of sampling frame
4. Field work for collection of institutional data from the different survey areas
5. Data collection on the legal dimension of Indian water institutions

To date, an expansive institutional and farmer survey has been administered in Andhra Pradesh and Maharashtra covering a range of water institutions and drawing data from hundreds of farms. However, the survey work has been delayed in Gujarat due to heavy rains. This component of the work is expected to be completed by the end of September 2005.

In addition to the institutional and farmer surveys, another instrument gauging the legal dimensions to water management has been administered in Mula Canal, Wahdad. Over 400 interviews were conducted at the first two sites using professional interviewers and translators. An additional site is yet to be surveyed.

This reporting period coincided with the finalisation of data collection from the various irrigation institutions in the states of Gujarat, Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh. At the completion of this phase information had been gathered from 450 households, covering three states and 29 different institutional types. Broadly speaking, the data were interrogated to test the relationship between perceived institutional success (say in the form of more reliable sharing of water resources) and salient institutional factors derived from earlier parts of the study.

Core findings from the empirical analysis were as follows:

demonstration that good institutional design is critical to good institutional performance in water resource management
support for the view that New Institutional Economics and the organisational theory of good governance provide useful and complementary frameworks for establishing good design principles
increased recognition of the merits of devolved decision making to farmer-based organizations directly involved with irrigation;
appreciation of the influence of concurrent mechanisms by which authority is devolved to lower order organizations - it is not enough to simply say that decision making power now reside with artificially created farmer groups;
identification of the need for capacity building within organizations at the bottom of the decision making hierarchy, particularly in the form of skilled management and sufficient expertise to liaise with higher tiers of governance;
acknowledgement that greater effort is required to ensure that the improved performance of low-level organizations is not hindered by flawed decision making or the absence of coordination at higher levels in the institutional hierarchy - there is an urgent need for improved synchronization of decision making across the different levels of governance within irrigated agriculture in India.

These findings were tested and disseminated by a series of workshops in India and a final workshop at the end of June 2006. The workshops attracted participants from the three state governments from which data were collected in India, the Government of India and several NGOs operating in this field. The Australian workshop provided an opportunity for Indian government officials to share knowledge about institutional performance with representatives of the Victorian and NSW governments, the Murray-Darling Basin Commission and local research agencies.

The initial project concluded in June 2006 and was reviewed by Dr Alistair Watson.
Important observations from the review include:

the project was well-grounded and had a clear focus
the project objectives were broadly met, with some scope for enhancement in the context of objectives 1, 3 and 6
the community impacts of the project are tied to a broader process of policy change in India. Whilst not understating the formidable political challenges ahead, the reviewer noted that the benefits of achieving sensible policy adjustments can be substantial, and in this context the project played a valuable part
the capacity building and scientific impacts of the project had been significant
project execution had led to useful cooperation between participants.

In addition to these general findings, the review proffered several mechanisms for extending the existing work. More specifically, three direct developments were recommended in the form of:

publication of a book
further dissemination via journal and feature articles targeted at influencing Indian opinion
provision of survey data to other researchers

A formal extension proposal was accepted by ACIAR to deliver on the above activities. During this reporting period draft chapters of the book manuscript have been prepared and additional journal articles submitted for publication. The data set developed as part of the project has also been made available to other scholars and those interested in this work.

The extension proposal also foreshadowed additional dissemination activities in India. These activities have been stalled, primarily in an effort to leverage any visits into other work being developed by ACIAR under the theme of Water Shed Development.

The initial project concluded in June 2006 and was subsequently reviewed. The reviewer was complimentary of the work undertaken in the project and suggested extension on three main fronts:

publication of a book
further dissemination via journal and feature articles targeted at influencing Indian opinion
provision of survey data to other researchers

A formal extension proposal was accepted by ACIAR to deliver on the above activities. In last year's report the accomplishment of item 3 was reported.

The book manuscript has attracted the attention of an international publisher (Earthscan) and the project leaders are presently negotiating a publication agreement. Earthscan is a reputable publisher of scholarly work and has an established marketing network to facilitate distribution of the book in India and elsewhere. The proposed release date is October/November 2008.

The extension proposal also foreshadowed additional dissemination activities in India. These activities were initially curtailed, primarily in an effort to leverage any visits into other work being developed by ACIAR under the theme of Water Shed Development (WSD).

Subsequently, an article titled "Understanding Institutional Challenges in Water Resource Management in India" was prepared for dissemination of the findings and it has been published in the ACIAR South Asia Newsletter - May 2008 issue. Many findings of the project have been incorporated in a report "Evaluation of Participatory Irrigation Management Practices in India" submitted to the Ministry of Agriculture, Government of India and this would have an impact on government policy. Findings of the project have been also incorporated in a report "National Agricultural Policy - Action Plan" submitted to the Ministry of Agriculture, Government of India which would influence policy. A project researcher has been appointed to the "Taskforce on Irrigation" formed at the suggestion of India's Prime Minister by the Planning Commission and gives opportunity to influence policy.

In the past 12 months the results of the initial research were presented at several forums convened to consider how the institutional lens could be incorporated into meso-scale WSD projects in Andhra Pradesh. These workshops have been attended by state and national government officials where the outcomes from the institutional project were debated. At the time of submitting this annual report, a Proposal for a project centering on institutions in WSD was being circulated for external review.

The following work was conducted on subprojects in 2002:

1a) Update biological parameters; and
1c) Update harvesting effort distribution parameters

Parameter updating was completed under the supervision of Dr John Hampton.

Age classes for all four tuna species are now by year quarter.
Natural mortality is now defined by quarterly age class.
Mean climate and fishery parameters were estimated using catch and effort data for 1997-2000.
Additional fleets have been included in the model for the Philippines and Indonesia. There are now 20 fleets.

1b) Modelling the effects of El Nino - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events on tuna catches

The model has been run with climatological and environmental data for the period 1965-1994. Further work will be carried out by Dr Chris Reid to test the effect of ENSO events on harvests and rents.

1d) Revised harvesting costs and catch level functions
Initial work has been carried out by Dr John Hampton on re-estimating stock and effort exponents in the tuna harvesting functions utilising the MULTIFAN-CL model developed by the Oceanic Fisheries Program (OFP) at the Secretariat of the Pacific Community (SPC) and others.

1e) Update tuna prices and demand parameters

Professor Harry Campbell worked on demand and cost estimates with Dr Chris Reid as discussed at the February project meeting at SPC in Noumea. A paper containing extensive information on current tuna prices and fishing costs, together with up-dated demand elasticity estimates and a discussion of access fees was prepared and presented at the December project meeting at the SPC. This paper provides the necessary demand and cost data as input to the revised bioeconomic model and the new spatially aggregated model.

2a) Appraisal of effort and catch reduction systems

Professor Harry Campbell and Dr Chis Reid identified two charging systems for obtaining shares in the rents obtained by Distant Water Fleet Nations (DWFNs) in harvesting in the exclusive economic zones (EEZs) of the Pacific Island Nations (PINs), on grounds of feasibility and economic efficiency: a charge on catch, and a charge on effort applied. It was argued that it is less costly to monitor effort than catch, and that therefore alternative charge-on-effort schemes should be considered. The scheme that is favoured is based on effort for each gear type, measured by vessel gross registered tonnage multiplied by number of days in the EEZs of the PINs, summed across all vessels. The pros and cons of implementing such an aggregate effort quota system through an auctioning system are debated.

1f) Model extension for access fees charged to DWFNs; and
1g) Model extension for fleet capacity decisions

The original project proposal was based on the assumption that the model developed in the previous ACIAR project (ADP/1994/005, entitled A Bioeconomic Analysis of Tuna Purse Seining in the Pacific Islands Region) would be used for modelling the determination of bargaining between the DWFNs and the PINs over charges for access to the EEZs of the PINs. The feasibility of this was discussed at the February 2002 meeting at the SPC. Because of the high spatial resolution of the original model, it was suspected that solution times would be too long to solve the bargaining problems. Subsequent investigation proved this to be the case. It was decided that a smaller, spatially aggregated model should be developed for modelling bargaining, with parameters based on the larger model. The updated larger model would be important for gauging the degree of aggregation bias in the smaller model.

Year 2 (01/01/2003-31/12/2003)
An important model being used in the current project for modelling optimal harvesting decisions of the DWFNs is a bioeconomic model developed in a previous ACIAR project (ADP/1994/005: A bioeconomic analysis of tuna purse seining in the Pacific Islands region). In 2003 updating of technical and economic parameters continued as planned, and revised harvesting policies for different tuna species obtained. A technical paper on revised prices and costs, titled 'Tuna Prices and Fishing Costs for Bioeconomic Modelling of the Western and Central Pacific Tuna Fisheries' was released. A website was built to enable easy access to this and subsequent papers, and to present the aims of the project and the contact details of the project participants. The website has attracted overseas interest.
Solution times for the bioeconomic model are relatively long, for two reasons-the first is the detail in modelling the seasonal migration of tuna in the Western Central Pacific Ocean between 5 degree squares, and the second is the very basic algorithm used for obtaining optimal solutions. Because the algorithm simulating optimal negotiation requires many runs of the model, there is the need for a faster, albeit less detailed, model. As planned, work continued in 2003 to develop a smaller, more aggregated model using a different solution process. The large model will be necessary for calibrating parameters in the smaller model. Work also started on reprogramming the large model to obtain solutions with the new optimising routine.
The special problem of obtaining international agreement on efficient management of migratory fish has been recognised in the United Nations Fish Stocks Agreement. This has led to establishment of commissions to oversee the conservation and management of migratory stocks in various parts of the world's oceans. When the project proposal was written in 2001 it was expected that a commission would be set up for the management of the migratory tuna stocks in the Western and Central Pacific Ocean. After a series of annual preparatory conferences, held since 2000 and involving the PINs and DWFNs affected, the Commission is to be convened in December 2004. The formation of the Commission should focus attention on the benefits of coordinated action by the PINs to improve efficiency in managing stocks.
A key question remains: What measures should be introduced to reduce the overexploitation of yellowfin and bigeye tuna by purse seine and longline vessels? The updated bioeconomic model is being used to study this question.

Background:

The aim of the current project is to determine the economic negotiating positions of Pacific Island Nations (PINs) that have rights to stocks of migratory tuna passing through their economic fishing zones, and the Distant Water Fleet Nations (DWFNs) such as Japan, USA, South Korea, Taiwan and China that are interested in paying for access to the stocks. This relies on interactive modeling of the optimal access offers of the PINs and the optimal harvesting decisions of the DWFNs.

The special problems of obtaining international agreement on efficient management of migratory fish have been recognized in the United Nations Fish Stocks Agreement, which came into force in 2001. This has led to the setting up of commissions to oversee the conservation and management of migratory stocks in various parts of the world's oceans. The commission for the region which is the focus of the project (Commission For the Conservation and Management of Highly Migratory Fish Stocks in the Western and Central Pacific) was installed in December 2004. The formation of the Commission is likely to focus attention on the benefits of coordinated action by the PINs to improve efficiency in managing stocks.

Subprojects carried out in 2004:

1) Translating the computer code of the disaggregated bioeconomic tuna model from C++ to Visual Basic.
This was in response to the need to be able to modify the model to experiment with different model assumptions, such as modelling year to year changes in stocks over a 15-year period under alternative effort levels of harvesting fleets; and to be able to experiment with a faster optimising routine.

2) Progress with the small highly aggregated bioeconomic model.
A basic version of the model was completed, incorporating an optimising routine. This is being developed to model decisions of DWFNs on catch effort within the EEZ's of the PINs in response to access charges set by the PINs. To ensure feasible computing times to obtain solutions, a small highly aggregated model is required, with parameters which can be calibrated from test results from the larger model.

3) Investigating data and methods for determining the cost of increasing fleet capacity over time as original capacity declines (In line with Subproject 1g, Model extension for fleet capacity decisions).
Data were collected and analysed on the distribution of ages, capacities and prices of Purse Seiner and Longline vessels from published reports and internet sites advertising asking prices for second-hand vessels. The results were documented in a working paper.

4) Colour mapping on Microsoft Excel spreadsheets of the aggregation of variables such as fishing effort and catch across the 5 degree squares of the Western and Central Pacific Ocean, with calculation of subtotals inside and outside the combined EEZ's of the PINs.
A spreadsheet program was written for display of the fishing effort data by fleet entered for the large disaggregated model in each 5 degree squares of the WCPO, differentiating squares by colour according to whether they were land, sea within the PIN's EEZs, and sea outside the PIN's EEZs. This is important for understanding the overall magnitude and distribution of the effort of different fleets in different runs of the model, and.for displaying data on catch and effort across recent years from the Oceanic Fisheries Program database. The percentage of total catch outside and inside the PIN's EEZs is calculated.

Background

The aim of the current project is to determine the economic negotiating positions of Pacific Island Nations (PINs) that have rights to stocks of migratory tuna passing through their economic fishing zones, and the Distant Water Fleet Nations (DWFNs) such as Japan, USA, South Korea, Taiwan and China that are interested in paying for access to the stocks. This relies on interactive modeling of the optimal access offers of the PINs and the optimal harvesting decisions of the DWFNs.

The Commission for the Conservation and Management of Highly Migratory Fish Stocks in the Western and Central Pacific was installed in December 2004, under the auspices of the United Nations Fish Stocks Agreement, which came into force in 2001. The Commission is investigating alternative management measures for ensuring stocks will be effectively managed and that catches will be sustainable. The modelling resources developed in this project will enable estimates to be made of the producer rents flowing to different fishing fleets targeting different tuna species, inside and outside the exclusive economic zones of the PINs, from alternative regulatory measures.

Work carried out in 2005
Under Objective 1: Updating and extending the capability of the bioeconomic tuna model:
Extending modelled fleet coverage
Domestic fleets of the Philippines and Indonesia and the troll fleet targeting albacore operating in the Pacific were added to the model.

The range of purse seine fleets was increased from the original four (Japan, Korea, Taiwan and the US) to include fleets for the Pacific Islands, Western and Central Pacific Ocean, and Eastern Pacific Ocean.
Extending the area of modelled fishing effort
Previously the model decision variables were harvesting effort by each fleet within the region covered by the Forum Fisheries Agency (FFA). Fleet harvesting efforts outside the FFA region are now included as decision variables.
Updating biological parameters
Age classes for all four tuna species are by quarter (previously albacore was by year).

Natural mortality is specified by quarterly age class, instead of constant across all ages.

Changes were made to make the harvest function selectivity coefficients dependent only on gear type (purse-seine, pole and line, and longline), instead of on fleet and gear type.

Effort and stock exponents in the harvest functions used in the model had been set at one following widespread practice. Empirical estimation showed that WCPO purse seine stock exponents for skipjack were better set at 0.7, and for yellowfin at 0.3. Changes have been made accordingly in the updated model.

The match between modelled catches and observed catches was improved by estimating catchability coefficients for each fleet, this time allowing the coefficients to be different for harvesting effort inside and outside the FFA region.

Adjustments have been made to parameters determining recruitment of young fish stock to fisheries in the fishing areas of the Philippines and Indonesia. These were to correct for perceived modelled shortfalls in recruitment in these areas.
Under Objective 2: Analyse strategic policy options facing the nations of the FFA
The following analysis was conducted with the updated model:
i) Changes in purse seine effort on catch per unit effort (CPUE) and economic rents in the purse seine fishery
The previous model predicted a 10 per cent reduction in fishing effort would increase rents by 55 per cent. The updated model predicted an increase of only 40 per cent.
ii) Effect of an increase in purse seine catchability of yellowfin and bigeye on longline catches and fishery revenue
Repeating tests for increases in purse seine catchability of 50 per cent carried out with the previous model, the updated model confirmed that in the case of yellowfin the overall value of the fishery increased, but decreased for bigeye. The results from the updated model were more pronounced.
iii) Effect of effort reduction across all fisheries on catch and economic rents
Results from the updated model showed that reducing effort level across all fisheries by 30 per cent leads to substantial percentage increases in rents for all fisheries (purse seine, pole and line, frozen longline and fresh longline), inside and outside the FFA region, except in the case of the fresh longline fishery within the FFA region, for which the rent reduction was 2 per cent. Of particular interest is the distribution of gains across the fisheries. The frozen long-ine fishery gains to a much greater extent than the purse seine, pole and line and fresh longline fisheries.

Background
The aim of the current project is to determine the economic negotiating positions of Pacific Island Nations (PINs)
that have rights to stocks of migratory tuna passing through their economic fishing zones, and the Distant Water
Fleet Nations (DWFNs) such as Japan, USA, South Korea, Taiwan and China that are interested in paying for
access to the stocks. This relies on interactive modeling of the optimal access offers of the PINs and the optimal
harvesting decisions of the DWFNs.
The Commission for the Conservation and Management of Highly Migratory Fish Stocks in the Western and
Central Pacific was installed in December 2004, under the auspices of the United Nations Fish Stocks
Agreement, which came into force in 2001. The Commission is investigating alternative management measures
for ensuring stocks will be effectively managed and that catches will be sustainable. The modelling resources
developed in this project will enable estimates to be made of the producer rents flowing to different fishing fleets
targeting different tuna species, inside and outside the exclusive economic zones of the PINs, from alternative
regulatory measures.
Work carried out in 2006
Under Objective 1: Updating and extending the capability of the bioeconomic tuna model
Subproject 1e) Updating economic parameters
Chris Reid incorporated revised price elasticities of demand by fleet, species and gear type in the large scale
bioeconomic model. The determination of the revised elasticities is detailed in Project Technical Paper 1.
Under Objective 2: Analyse strategic policy options facing the nations of the FFA
Subproject 2a) Appraisal of effort and catch reduction systems
The following paper:
Reid, C., Bertignac, M., and Hampton, J. (2006), "Further development of, and analysis using, the
Western and Central Pacific Ocean Bioeconomic Tuna Model (WCPOBTM)", Technical Paper
No. 2, ACIAR Project No. FIS/2001/036: Maximising the Economic Benefits to Pacific Island
Nations from Management of Migratory Tuna Stocks, June, pp. 25.
was released as Technical Paper 2 downloadable on the Project website:
http://www.business.latrobe.edu.au/public/staffhp/jkennedy/index.htm
The paper details the structural updating to the population dynamics and the harvest model carried out in
2005, and changes to the revenue model carried out in 2006. The paper also contains an analysis of the
effect of effort and catch reductions conducted with the updated model which is compared with results
obtained with the previous model described by Bertignac et al. (2000)1.
The results of the analysis indicate that if an across the board effort reduction were implemented in the WCPO
the total level of rent generated the WCPO tuna fishery as a whole is likely to increase but that the net benefits
Page 3 of 9
gained are likely to be disproportionately borne by particular fisheries and jurisdictions. The purse seine fishery
within the waters of FFA members is likely to see the least proportionate gains, while the highseas frozen
longline fishery is likely to see the largest net benefits from such an action. Actual outcomes are likely to be
more detrimental to FFA member countries with a significant purse seine fishery in their waters than the analysis
indicates as the model does not take into consideration the benefits gained from processing activities or
employment associated with the purse seine fishery which are not associated with the highseas longline fishery.
The adoption of management measures by the WCPFC is likely to have substantially different economic
outcomes for different fleets and Commission members. To overcome the difficulties inherent in obtaining
agreement on implementing management measures members of the WCPFC will need to give serious
consideration to the possibility of the use of "negotiation facilitators" or "side-payments" in order to ensure that
the costs and benefits of any such management measures are borne equitably between members.
Other key activities during 2006
John Kennedy presented a paper at the International Institute of Fisheries Economics and Trade (IIFET) 2006
Conference at the University of Portsmouth in the UK on policy options for management of highly migratory
fish stocks in the Western and Central Pacific2. The goals of the recently established Western and Central Pacific
Fisheries Commission were outlined. Statements by the Commission suggest that in the longer run Convention
Area total allowable catches (or total allowable effort levels) are likely to be imposed in exclusive economic
zones and high-seas sub regions. The role of bioeconomic optimizing models in helping to determine these is
canvassed. They are important for indicating which harvesting parties gain and which lose from the introduction
of new measures, and are thus likely to be useful in the determination of Convention Area total allowable catch
allocations. The paper was presented in a special session "Management of High Seas Fisheries" chaired by
Professor Gordon Munro, a specialist in the area of the United Nations Fish Stocks Agreement on managing
migratory stocks.
Work continued on the translation the C++ program of the large scale bioeconomic model of WCP tuna to
Visual Basic, preparatory to incorporating a more efficient optimising routine. Work began on a paper for the
Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society Conference in February 2007.
References:
1 Bertignac, M., H. F. Campbell, J. Hampton and A. Hand (2000), "Maximising Resource Rent from the
Western and Central Pacific Tuna Fisheries", Marine Resource Economics 15, 151-177.
2 Kennedy, J. (2006), "Policy Options for Management of Highly Migratory Fish Stocks in the Western and Central
Pacific Ocean". In: Proceedings of the Thirteenth Biennial Conference of the International Institute of
Fisheries Economics & Trade, July 11-14, 2006, Portsmouth, UK: Rebuilding Fisheries in an Uncertain
Environment. Compiled by Ann L. Shriver. International Institute of Fisheries Economics & Trade, Corvallis,
Oregon, USA, 2006. CD ROM. ISBN 0-9763432-3-1. ISBN 0-9763432-3-1. (Downloadable as Technical
Paper 3 on the Project website)