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Plausible futures for economic development and structural adjustment - impacts and policy implications for Indonesia and Australia

Project ID

ADP/2005/068

Project Country

Commissioned Organisation

International Food Policy Research Institute, Environment and Production Technology Division, USA

Project Leader

Dr Mark W Rosegrant

Email

m.rosegrant@cgiar.org

Phone: 

1 202 8625621

Fax: 

1 202 4674439

Collaborating Institutions

Australian National University, Australia
Indonesian Centre for Agriculture Socio Economic and Policy Studies, Indonesia
Bogor Agricultural University, Indonesia
University of Adelaide, Australia
Ministry of Trade, Indonesia

Project Budget

$1,226,726.00

Start Date

01/01/2009

Finish Date

31/12/2011

Extension Start Date

01/01/2012

Extension Finish Date

30/06/2012

ACIAR Research Program Manager

Dr Simon Hearn

Overview Objectives

Indonesia's agricultural economy is in urgent need of assistance to undertake quality policy analysis focused on maintaining sustainable economic growth in the face of growing global economic and environmental pressures. This project will conduct an overview of Indonesian agricultural technologies, policies and associated data that impacts on economic growth and production efficiency in the face of these changes. Activities will include data collection and analysis on agricultural-related technology, policies and institutions, and delivery of both partial-equilibrium sector and economy-wide econometric modelling of policy options. The program will involve policy dialogues, study tours to relevant institutions and staff interchanges. Such activities are designed to improve the capacity of Indonesian policymakers to review the contribution of agriculture to rural and wider economic development and to design policies that can impact positively upon incomes, poverty and hunger in the medium to longer term. The Indonesian policymakers will gain an enhanced set of knowledge and decision support tools that can help them to look to future challenges posed by global environmental and economic change and to identify and examine areas in need of alternative policy options. Fulfilling these aims will also bring out broader implications for the rest of the Asia-Pacific region, to show how regional economies such as Australia might best adjust to policy changes in Indonesia under alternative growth scenarios.

Progress Reports (Year 1, 2, 3 etc)

Year 1

The overall aims of the project are to improve the capacity of Indonesian policy makers and processes to review the role of agriculture in rural development and the overall economy and to design policies that can impact positively upon incomes, poverty and hunger in the longer-term. The project will provide an enhanced set of knowledge and decision support tools that can help Indonesian policy makers to look to future challenges posed by global environmental and economic change and to identify and examine areas in need of alternative policy options (e.g. in relation to adjustment). These aims will bring out broader implications for the rest of the Asia Pacific region to show how other large economies, like Australia, might best be able to adjust to policy changes in Indonesia under alternative growth scenarios.
Project objectives include:
Review qualitatively Indonesian agricultural-related policies and relevant data within the broader technology, economic and physical environment;
Identify Indonesian agricultural-related policy areas requiring further assistance and reform, including the institutions themselves, technologies to overcome productivity constraints to agricultural growth and effects of global climate change, and policy reactions in the rest of the world to climate change;
Develop required policy analysis tools that can provide the appropriate forward-looking analysis that is needed to design appropriate policy options to meet the challenges of global economic and environmental change;
Analyse the priority areas and provide policy options, within a plausible futures framework that links key models of economic and natural processes, and that can deliver long-term and economy-wide benefits for both Indonesia and Australia;
Disseminate the outcomes and adoption of recommendations of the research through publications and presentations to policy makers, together with established steering groups of policy makers in both countries; and
Provide hands-on training in strategic agricultural-related policy analysis, so as to familiarise the final end-users in Indonesia on how best to exploit the available knowledge and decision-support tools and resources made available through this project.
Key activities for 1. include: Data gathering and other relevant information from secondary literature; Overview report on Indonesian agricultural and trade policies; and understanding of the institutional structure in relation to decentralisation in Indonesia (with activities 1 and 2 completed under this reporting period). Key activities for 2. include review and analyse past and existing institutional arrangements related to implementation of agricultural policies; Identify potential areas for capacity strengthening and improvement through informal interviews; Provide technical guidance or toolbox on how to achieve these improvements; Present examples or similar situations and techniques whenever possible. 3 works on reviewing and analysing policy analysis tools applied in other developing countries which may be adopted in Indonesia (scheduled for completion under this reporting period); Listing and assessing policy analysis tools or models applied for projections in agricultural technology, climate change and economic assessments; and model development and application to agricultural-related technology, trade, climate change, policies and institutions. The key activity under 4. is a review and assessment of long-term economic frameworks and priority areas of Indonesia and Australia. 5 focuses on dissemination of information and publishing technical outputs in Indonesia and Australia; and 6 includes one activity on providing hands-on training in strategic agricultural-related policy analysis, so as to familiarise the final end-users in Indonesia on how best to exploit the available knowledge and decision-support tools and resources made available through this project.
Draft and completed products are attached separately.

Year 2

The overall aims of the project are to improve the capacity of Indonesian policy makers and processes to review the role of agriculture in rural development and the overall economy and to design policies that can impact positively upon incomes, poverty and hunger in the longer-term. The project will provide an enhanced set of knowledge and decision support tools that can help Indonesian policymakers to look to future challenges posed by global environmental and economic change and to identify and examine areas in need of alternative policy options (e.g. in relation to adjustment). These aims will bring out broader implications for the rest of the Asia-Pacific region to show how other large economies, like Australia, might best be able to adjust to policy changes in Indonesia under alternative growth scenarios.
Project objectives include: O.1.Review qualitatively, Indonesian agricultural-related policies and relevant data within the broader technology, economic and physical environment; O.2. Identify Indonesian agricultural-related policy areas requiring further assistance and reform, including the institutions themselves, technologies to overcome productivity constraints to agricultural growth and effects of global climate change, and policy reactions in the rest of the world to climate change; O.3. Develop required policy analysis tools that can provide the appropriate forward-looking analysis that is needed to design appropriate policy options to meet the challenges of global economic and environmental change; O.4. Analyse the priority areas and provide policy options, within a plausible futures framework that links key models of economic and natural processes, and that can deliver long-term and economy-wide benefits for both Indonesia and Australia; O.5. Disseminate the outcomes and adoption of recommendations of the research through publications and presentations to policymakers, together with established steering groups of policymakers in both countries; and O.6. Provide hands-on training in strategic agricultural-related policy analysis, so as to familiarise the final end-users in Indonesia on how best to exploit the available knowledge and decision-support tools and resources made available through this project.
Key activities for O.1. include 1.1-Data gathering and other relevant information from secondary literature; 1.2-Overview report on Indonesian agricultural and trade policies; and 1.3-Understanding of the institutional structure in relation to decentralization in Indonesia (with activities 1 and 2 completed under this reporting period). Key activities for O.2. include 2.1-Review and analyse past and existing institutional arrangements related to implementation of agricultural policies; 2.2-Identify potential areas for capacity strengthening and improvement through informal interviews; and 2.3-Provide technical guidance or toolbox on how to achieve these improvements; present examples or similar situations and techniques whenever possible. O.3 works on 3.1-Review and analyse policy analysis tools applied in other developing countries (e.g. Vietnam) which may be adopted in Indonesia (scheduled for completion under this reporting period); 3.2-List and assess policy analysis tools or models applied for projections in agricultural technology, climate change and economic assessments; and 3.3-Model development and application to agricultural-related technology, trade, climate change, policies and institutions. The key activity under O.4. is a 4.1-Review and assess long-term economic frameworks and priority areas of Indonesia and Australia. O.5.focuses on 5.1- Dissemination of information; and 5.2-Publish technical outputs in Indonesia and Australia; and O.6 includes one Activity on 6.1-Provide hands-on training in strategic agricultural-related policy analysis, so as to familiarize the final end-users in Indonesia on how best to exploit the available knowledge and decision-support tools and resources made available through this project.

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