The project goal is to provide policy makers with options of alternative policies and investments for agricultural knowledge, science and technology (AKST) based on the analysis of alternative development paths and their implications for food security, rural development, and environmental sustainability. Project objectives are: 1) to develop 4-5 alternative development paths or scenarios for agriculture and related KST policies out to 2050; 2) to develop quantitative scenario results using the models proposed for this project; 3) to analyse the results of both quantitative and qualitative scenario outcomes and to develop implications for investment based on these outcomes; 4) to analyse the economy-wide implications of trade and subsidy policies within these scenarios; and 5) to disseminate research results.

The project is being implemented in close collaboration with the 2-year IAASTD initiative (www.agassessment.org). Objectives 1-3 are implemented closely with IAASTD, whereas 4 and 5 are carried out independently with ACIAR project partners in China, India, and Australia. Moreover, the project focuses more on the quantification of scenarios than development of storylines. Outputs under Obj. 1 & 2 were scheduled to be achieved during the first reporting period; moreover, Obj. 5 is ongoing throughout the project period.

Activities under Obj. 1 relate to a) development of storylines, b) development of alternative KST policies; and c) testing of scenario plausibility and quantification.
Specific Outputs include:
1.1 Drivers for agriculture and AKST policies identified; scenarios developed.
1.2 KST policies developed for each of the alternative scenarios.
1.3 4-5 plausible, internally consistent, challenging, novel, substantial and relevant agriculture scenarios in the form of narratives describing distinctly different pathways from the 2005 to 2050 for agriculture productivity growth, food security, livelihoods and environmental sustainability and the role of science and technology in shaping the pathway

These outputs have been achieved. However, the 4 scenarios developed to date are yet to go through two rounds of review, after which they will be further refined and updated. Instead of a separate 5th scenario, changes for 2 of the other scenarios will be developed so as to allow these scenarios to get closer to the targets of the MDGs. Macro-economic drivers are based on those used in the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA). Other outputs include development of conceptual frameworks for scenario analysis; finalization of chapter outlines; and decisions on drivers.

Obj. 2 focuses on a) quantification of drivers and development of productivity and growth trends; b) adaptation of models; c) implementation of model simulations; d) readjustment of model parameters based on feedbacks; and e) readjustment of descriptive scenarios based on modelling results.
Specific Outputs include:
2.1 Quantitative relationships for alternative scenarios for the models
2.2 Models adequately address quantifiable scenario components
2.3 Model results quantifying paths of agricultural production, consumption and trade by scenario
2.4 Improved scenario results in iteration with scenario narratives
2.5 Improved scenario narratives in iteration with model simulations

During the first reporting period, Outputs 2.1-2.3 have been achieved. Feedback loops/iterations among models have not yet been implemented, however. They will be realized in the first half of the second reporting period.

The research activity under Obj. 5 that relates to the first year of implementation is to hold coordination meetings and consult with collaborators. Given the complexity of this research project, a lot of emphasis has been accorded to meetings-significantly more than originally envisioned-4 meetings.

In particular, project researchers attended the following meetings:

1) Jan 30-Feb 3, 2005, Bangkok: Global Scenarios Meeting-to develop the conceptual framework for scenarios work and a draft outline
2) April 9-12, 2005, Beijing: ESAP Design Meeting-to develop the outline and conceptual frameworks for the Asia region
3) May 23-25, 2005, Montpellier: Integrated Design Team meeting-to finalize conceptual frameworks & outlines.
4) July 18-20, 2005, Rome: IAASTD meeting on global and regional scenarios-to discuss and agree on drivers and start the development of qualitative storylines
5) October 11-15, 2005, Washington: 1st Global Scenario Working Group Meeting-to integrate regional and global scenarios, further develop storyline drivers, and AKST policies
6) January 22-25, 2006, Rome: IAASTD Scenarios Storyline Meeting-to finalize the draft of 4 storylines
7) April 3-5, 2006, Washington: ACIAR-IFPRI Workshop on Exploring Alternative Futures for Agricultural Knowledge, Science and Technology-to finalize drivers to be quantified, model parameters, and model interactions.
8) May 2-5, 2006, Bangkok: 2nd Global Authors Workshop-for Scenarios to interact with historical trends and implications of scenario outcomes; and to discuss storyline and quantifications, and a first set of model results.

The project goal is to provide policymakers with options of alternative policies and investments for agricultural knowledge, science and technology (AKST) based on the analysis of alternative development paths and their implications for food security, rural development, and environmental sustainability. Project objectives are: 1) to develop 4-5 alternative development paths or scenarios for agriculture and related KST policies out to 2050; 2) to develop quantitative scenario results using the models proposed for this project; 3) to analyse the results of both quantitative and qualitative scenario outcomes and to develop implications for investment based on these outcomes; 4) to analyse the economy-wide implications of trade and subsidy policies within these scenarios; and 5) to disseminate research results.

The project is being implemented in close collaboration with the 2-year IAASTD initiative (www.agassessment.org). Outputs under Objectives 1 and 2 were achieved during the first reporting period (1 July, 2005 - 1 July, 2006), and Objective 3 and part of Objective 4 were partially achieved during this reporting period. One change occurred in November 2006 that led to a change in outcomes of Objective 1. The Bureau of the IAASTD decided to replace the approach of four to five storylines with the development of a reference or baseline run combined with the analysis of a series of policy issues.

Activities under Objective 3 include the analysis of final model results, and the development of investment implications for alternative scenarios and KST implications. Outputs under this objective include a report on the analysis of model results, a report on final scenario outcomes, and implications for investment. Activities under Objective 4 include the analysis of implications of trade and subsidy policies within the scenarios, in particular, for food production and food security.

Feedback effects between the global CGE model (ABARE's GTEM model) and the global partial agricultural equilibrium model (IMPACT) were implemented, as were additional feedback loops between an Integrated Assessment model and IMPACT. This was a project activity lagging behind from the first reporting period. Moreover, a draft chapter with 5 storylines was submitted in August 2006. A second draft was submitted in April of 2007 replacing the storyline approach with a reference world or business-as-usual approach, together with 6 quantitative and 6 qualitative policy issues. Quantitatively assessed policy issues include climate change policies and agriculture, trade policies and international market constraints, investment in AKST, bioenergy, water productivity, and changing preferences for meat and certified organic products; qualitative assessments included: Agricultural resource management and land tenure issues, food safety and food security, biotechnology and biodiversity, information and communication technologies and local knowledge, urbanization and migration, and the interface of human, animal, and plant health.

Investment calculations have been implemented, but have not yet been submitted to IAASTD. Two alternative trade scenarios have been developed for IAASTD, but a separate report on trade and subsidy scenarios has yet to be developed, and has been slightly delayed. One of the most surprising outcomes of the chapter is that long-term trends of global food supply and demand indicate a tightening of world food markets and growing resource scarcity combined with continuing increases in demand for the first time in many years indicate long-term increasing food prices for major staple crops and meats.

Regarding outreach and dissemination (Objective 5), project researchers again attended several meetings during the reporting period:

1) August 12-16, 2006, Gold Coast: IFPRI organized a Mini-symposium at the International Association of Agricultural Economists titled "Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA) - Implications for the International Assessment of Agricultural Science and Technology for Development (IAASTD)" for Thursday, August 17
2) November 6-10, 2006, San Jose, Costa Rica: Third Global Authors meeting to respond to comments of the first round of reviews and Bureau
3) June 10-14, 2007, Cape Town, South Africa: Fourth Global Authors meeting to respond to comments of the second round of reviews and Bureau

The project goal is to provide policymakers with options of alternative policies and investments for agricultural knowledge, science and technology (AKST) based on the analysis of alternative development paths and their implications for food security, rural development, and environmental sustainability. Project objectives are: 1) to develop 4-5 alternative development paths or scenarios for agriculture and related KST policies out to 2050; 2) to develop quantitative scenario results using the models proposed for this project; 3) to analyse the results of both quantitative and qualitative scenario outcomes and to develop implications for investment based on these outcomes; 4) to analyse the economy-wide implications of trade and subsidy policies within these scenarios; and 5) to disseminate research results. The project was implemented in close collaboration with the 2-year IAASTD (International Assessment of Agricultural Science and Technology for Development) initiative (www.agassessment.org).
Year 3 of the project focused on finalizing outputs under Objectives 3-5, including a report on the analysis of model results, a report on final scenario outcomes, and implications for investment (under Objective 3). This report was submitted to IAASTD in 10/2007 and has been included here as a separate attachment. Activities under Objective 4 included the analysis of implications of trade and subsidy policies within the scenarios, in particular, for food production and food security. Parts of this analysis were already included in the enclosed IAASTD report; additions will be submitted as part of the final project report. Objective 5 includes outreach activities, including three policy workshops, and policy briefs. A workshop was held in Canberra on May 2, and a second workshop will be held in Delhi on July 1. A third workshop will be held in Beijing. The date for the last policy workshop will be finalized shortly. Policy briefs are being developed for both alternative AKST scenarios and results focusing on China.
Summary of Results from the Analysis: As changes in food supply and demand in the reference world by 2050 and the various policy discussions show, agriculture will have to face a number of new and difficult challenges. Food security and food sovereignty are likely to still be problems 50 years from now. Agricultural production will be increasingly constrained by competition for land and water and by climate change. Strategies for adapting to new regulations for food safety, and the development of biotechnology and bioenergy pose significant challenges and opportunities. Food prices will most likely stay at higher levels as a result of these opportunities and constraints. In addition, regional and national income growth, urbanization and growing global inter-connectedness are expected to increase diet diversification and homogenization. Trade liberalization and greater integration of global food markets can support more reliable food supplies and lowered food prices in real terms. But as the reference run shows this is unlikely to be achieved in the coming decades.
With declining availability of water and land that can be profitably brought under cultivation, expansion in area will contribute very little to future production growth. The projected slow growth in crop area places the burden to meet future cereal demand on crop yield growth. The key to improving yields under increasingly constrained conditions lies in technology to improve agricultural productivity in order to regenerate productivity growth. Biotechnology could play an important role here. To adapt to and mitigate the various effects from climate change requires the development of new cultivars. Likewise, CO2 emissions can be reduced through new crop management practices supported by appropriate technologies. To achieve such breakthroughs, existing global and regional research-for-development networks for agricultural production technologies and knowledge need to work closely together so that technology and knowledge can flow to allow farmers to face the risks associated with future harvests. Information and communication technologies and traditional and local knowledge could play key roles in the regeneration of future productivity growth. As the alternative policy experiments analysed have shown higher, judiciously placed, investments in technology development can significantly improve outcomes for food availability and food security.
Regarding outreach and dissemination (Objective 5), project researchers attended several meetings during 07/2007-05/2008:
- August 17-21, 2007, Colombo, Sri Lanka: Meeting to finalize the Summary for Decision Makers and Synthesis Reports for IAASTD
- April 7-12, 2008, Johannesburg, South Africa: Second Plenary of the IAASTD to accept the Summary for Decision Makers and Synthesis Reports
- May 2, 2008, Canberra: Review and Discussion of Results of the ACIAR project on Exploring Alternative Futures for Agricultural Knowledge, Science and Technology (KST)
Journal article: Rosegrant, M., C. Ringler, S. Msangi, T. Zhu, T. Sulser, R. Valmonte-Santos, M. W. Rosegrant, and S. Wood. 2007. Agriculture and food security in Asia: The role of agricultural research and knowledge in a changing environment. Journal of Semi-Arid Tropical Agricultural Research 4(1): 1-35. http://www.icrisat.org/journal/specialproject/sp6.pdf
Brief: Rosegrant, M.W., C. Ringler, T. B. Sulser, S. Msangi, T. Zhu, R. Valmonte-Santos, and S. Wood. 2007. Agriculture in Asia: Challenges and opportunities. In Reducing poverty and hunger in Asia, ed. N. Islam. 2020 Focus No. 15. Washington, D.C.: IFPRI.